Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a critical trip to Washington to meet American leader Donald Trump. This marks the initial face-to-face encounter between the two leaders following an extended period of escalating strains and sharp rhetoric.
Agenda for Discussion
Venezuela, narcotics trade, oil, regional stability, and US strikes on suspected narco-boats are expected to be top on the agenda when they meet at the White House on the scheduled day.
Background of Tensions
While the two men were polite in a phone call following a recent US military operation, Petro has since said he feels there is a "serious risk" of military action against Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier remarked that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".
Tuesday's meeting follows months of the two presidents exchanging criticisms. Petro has often condemned repeated US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the White House's border policies.
"His stance shifted," Trump reportedly stating prior to the White House talks.
Areas of Disagreement
On the US side, Trump has accused Petro's administration of not doing enough to stop the flow of cocaine toward the United States, and has vowed to expand strikes to land targets across the region.
But, the acrimony seemed to subside after a "polite" phone call between the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later characterized as an complete reversal "by both parties".
Diplomatic Bridge
Per insiders, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was pivotal in facilitating the conversation. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong way," the lawmaker reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relations to get better."
Border Security and the Guerrilla Group
Prior to the meeting, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would center on mutual US and Colombian concerns over stability in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an long frontier.
A significant portion of that border is under the sway of the National Liberation Army. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, extortion, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and reportedly works with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.
From the US perspective, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be crucial to guaranteeing security for US companies involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Analysts note that the ELN has the capacity to spoil investment plans by attacking foreign investors and staff, as it has in the past done in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Cooperation
An similarly urgent issue for the two presidents will be the struggle against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest source of the drug. In November, Petro ordered a temporary pause on intelligence sharing with US authorities following Trump's threats.
The US has, conversely, officially designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating drug trafficking. It has also enacted restrictions on Colombian officials, including the president and members of his family.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," said a regional security expert. "Any move to cut off Colombian cooperation could also undermine all investigations."
Potential Outcomes
Despite multiple issues for collaboration, the possibility for a confrontation exists. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," commented a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avoid Trump's ire... However, it's unpredictable."
But for Petro, even a difficult encounter could be advantageous. His presidential term concludes soon, and the results of the meeting could impact the electoral chances of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well takes the air out of opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could use that in his favor."
